Handicapping the World Cup?

originally posted by Rahsaan:
originally posted by Christian Miller (CMM):
Party's over, for me. Same old same old for the final four...
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Doesn't that help instill confidence in the integrity of the game?

When you have too many upsets then something is wrong. Unless you like sports where the outcome has lots of random elements.
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Or the upsets continue until they are no longer considered upsets, and people reassess the relative strengths of the teams. In other words, they were upsets based on earlier data that is no longer predictive.

Lots of random elements? Sounds an awful lot like soccer to me. OK, maybe not that random, just so multivariate and complex that it looks that way. Lloris is narrowly beaten by a German header to the corner; later Neuer bats away an equally good and very similar header to the same corner. Luck? Skill? Intersection of a series of small differences?

Not that any of this analytical blather has anything to do with my reaction, which was completely gut level.
 
originally posted by Christian Miller (CMM):
Lots of random elements? Sounds an awful lot like soccer to me. OK, maybe not that random, just so multivariate and complex that it looks that way. Lloris is narrowly beaten by a German header to the corner; later Neuer bats away an equally good and very similar header to the same corner. Luck? Skill? Intersection of a series of small differences?
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Yeah, and those small differences may make the game more interesting. I'm not much of a soccer fan for many reasons, but I guess it is one of the more random sports, at least for the outcome of any one game.

And I understand why upsets make people excited, the unexpected outcome and all. I would just find it very frustrating to be in a sport where not just being better but playing better on any given day still didn't give you a big advantage for winning that game.
 
originally posted by Christian Miller (CMM):
Party's over, for me. Same old same old for the final four, none of them my teams (real or adopted). I guess I hope Brazil wins, as host nation (also with the largest population to be saddened by losing). Robbens is a force, but the diving is so bad as to completely undo any admiration. The fact that he's so skilled at it makes it all the worse.
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I understand the complaint, but can we really say that a tourney where the defending champion is knocked out at the group stage is predictable? Sure, it would have made for a great narrative had Costa Rica or Colombia made it through to the semis, but quality and experience will out in the end.

Mark Lipton
 
As an outsider, the problem seems to be that it is so hard to score. The measurement doesn't measure.

Make the goal bigger, or the goalie smaller, or something like that, and you'll better measure the differences between teams.
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
As an outsider, the problem seems to be that it is so hard to score. The measurement doesn't measure.

Make the goal bigger, or the goalie smaller, or something like that, and you'll better measure the differences between teams.
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Shut your mouth, heathen. Although, a 6' height limit on keeper would be funny. Or even 5'8". Ha!

Also, it is hard to score until it isn't.

Championship teams will generally figure out a way to score even against a defensive and determined opponent. The Dutch went off the post 3 times in that match and faced a valiant keeper.

All the shitty Dunga-esque play in the world is not going to save Brazil from Germany.

I also suspect that the referees will keep a sharp eye on the Dutch treatment of Messi and he will find a way. The only question is whether the Dutch can score more than Messi.
 
But VLM, don't you think that a measurement that so often delivers 1/1 or 0/0, or 1/0 is a measurement that needs to be spread out more? The world of soccer needs a better micrometer.
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
But VLM, don't you think that a measurement that so often delivers 1/1 or 0/0, or 1/0 is a measurement that needs to be spread out more? The world of soccer needs a better micrometer.
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I like the rare event model. But yes, from a measurement standpoint. That's why single games aren't as impressive as a whole 38 game season.
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
But VLM, don't you think that a measurement that so often delivers 1/1 or 0/0, or 1/0 is a measurement that needs to be spread out more? The world of soccer needs a better micrometer.
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The noteworthy characteristic of this WC is the relative lack of one-nil scores. Here's the breakdown of scores in the group stage:
0-0 5
1-0 8
1-1 2
2-0 2
2-1 11
2-2 2
3-0 4
3-1 5
3-2 2
3-3 0
4-0 2
4-1 2
4-2 1
4-3 0
4-4 0
5-0 0
5-1 1
5-2 1

total goals scored: 136 (in 48 games) average per game: 2.8333
most common score: 2-1 mean score: 2.15 - 0.69 mean goal differential: 1.46

Of the 48 games played, 18 were decided by more than one goal, 7 resulted in a tie and 23 were decided by one goal.

Regarding your point, only 15/48 games produced one of the three scores you mention.

Mark Lipton
 
I also suspect that the referees will keep a sharp eye on the Dutch treatment of Messi and he will find a way. The only question is whether the Dutch can score more than Messi.
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I'd like it better if they kept a close eye on Robben, so as not to get hoodwinked. It'd be a real shame to have a semifinal decided on a phony penalty.
 
originally posted by MLipton:
originally posted by SFJoe:
But VLM, don't you think that a measurement that so often delivers 1/1 or 0/0, or 1/0 is a measurement that needs to be spread out more? The world of soccer needs a better micrometer.
Click to expand...

The noteworthy characteristic of this WC is the relative lack of one-nil scores. Here's the breakdown of scores in the group stage:
0-0 5
1-0 8
1-1 2
2-0 2
2-1 11
2-2 2
3-0 4
3-1 5
3-2 2
3-3 0
4-0 2
4-1 2
4-2 1
4-3 0
4-4 0
5-0 0
5-1 1
5-2 1

total goals scored: 136 (in 48 games) average per game: 2.8333
most common score: 2-1 mean score: 2.15 - 0.69 mean goal differential: 1.46

Of the 48 games played, 18 were decided by more than one goal, 7 resulted in a tie and 23 were decided by one goal.

Regarding your point, only 15/48 games produced one of the three scores you mention.

Mark Lipton
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OK, fatter goalkeepers then. Minimum BMI.
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
30' in to the Germany/Brazil match, I take it all back.
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Shocking, innit? I was prepared for a German victory, but a bloodbath such as we are witnessing? They don't even need set pieces.

Mark Lipton
 
Though I still think minimum BMI for goalies is an idea worth pursuing.

They could bunk with the sumo guys.
 
I think what is pretty clear at the top club and international level, if you have to chase the game against a Germany, Real Madrid, or Arsenal you had better have an outstanding pair of fullbacks and a great goalkeeper because you will be punished.
 
originally posted by VLM:
I think what is pretty clear at the top club and international level, if you have to chase the game against a Germany, Real Madrid, or Arsenal you had better have an outstanding pair of fullbacks and a great goalkeeper because you will be punished.
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This. Having said that, I think that Neuer's looked vulnerable. Whether he ends up facing RvP and Robben or Messi and Agüero, I think that there may be opportunities.

Mark Lipton
 
Jesus H. Tap-dancing Christ.

My beloved national side for the past 30 years, against the team that I began to dislike in 1978 and had grown to despise in the 80s and 90s. (Granted, they've mellowed out since, and I could even go as far as to say that de Maria is the first player they've produced whom I've personally liked since Ardiles).

I don't know how I am going to sit through this one. It was a miracle the 1990 affair did not give me an ulcer. Hummels better fucking show up, I don't care if he has to play on one leg.
 
My surprise was how well Argentina defended the ball in this game. This was the first team that seemed capable of handling Robben without fouling him. They really limited touches and looked solid on set pieces. Even de Michelis looked solid, miracle of miracles. We'll see if Zabaleta has his jaw wired shut for the next game.

And Sasha: whatcha got against Messi?

Mark Lipton
 
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