I think the original worry, before we got into format debates and such, isn't really over format or distribution methods, but over the source of production. Whether or not there are enough Florida Jim-style Luddites that want books in paper form or not (or audiophiles with their vinyl) is irrelevant compared to the economics of creation, and it's pretty much a waste of everyone's time debating paint colors while the house is falling down around us. Certainly, Amazon, iTunes, and their successors are going to sell whatever's available to them, so the distribution pipeline remains intact, but the question is: what are they going to sell? The consumers haven't gone anywhere either, but the question is: what are they going to buy?Are we experiencing a period of substantial transformation and realignment
of dominant methods of distribution? Obviously, we are, but are we seeing immanent "deaths" for the analog formats, only insofar as they were once the only game in town and will live on indefinitely in limited fashion and steady graceful decline.
Almost no one who's had to deal with them in any capacity is going to lament the loss of the record labels, and maybe that's true for publishers as well, I don't know. But labels, publishers, the journalists' media...they're all dying. Some faster, some slower, but the same graveyard is in sight. Publishing-on-demand is a terrific thing, and would (had it arrived earlier) have stayed the decline and fall of the publishing industry like the CD did for the recording industry (and owning, rather than fighting, downloadable media would have let them hang on a little longer still), but PoD doesn't pay for the initial authorship unless it's also the publishing version of futures (which hasn't always worked very well, judging by the number of failed attempts), and the same is true for the mechanism in other media. Without that initial, pre-consumer revenue stream, there are no economics of creation. And then it doesn't matter whether the delivery medium is a hardcover, a Kindle, or an iPhone, because the book itself isn't going to exist. Nor the recording. Nor the investigative article. Somehow, some way, someone's going to have to figure out how to pay for and market these things. If there's a workable idea out there yet, I haven't seen it.