Get ready for the coming planetary crisis

[MLipton]

originally posted by Thor:
Mark, Mark, Mark...

James Fallows, who has made a bit of a crusade against this, would be so disappointed.

Do not confuse a rhetorical flourish with actual belief, dear Sir. Hence the question mark at the end of the title, BTW.

Ironically yours,
Mark Lipton

 

[Jeff Grossman]

originally posted by MLipton:
We're already 0.5C warmer on average than we were in 1970...

The wikipedia entry (that is the source of that map) claims it came from here. That map isn't there, but another interesting one is: it shows a spike in temperature around 1945 and then not again until 1980 (or so). Is it plausible that the 1945 spike was WWII or the two A-bombs? And what happened in 1980, continuing to this day, that is similar to that? Or, as the nay-sayers say, am I reading too much into the noise of an otherwise natural process?

 

[MLipton]

originally posted by Jeff Grossman:
That map isn't there, but another interesting one is: it shows a spike in temperature around 1945 and then not again until 1980 (or so). Is it plausible that the 1945 spike was WWII or the two A-bombs? And what happened in 1980, continuing to this day, that is similar to that? Or, as the nay-sayers say, am I reading too much into the noise of an otherwise natural process?

Nuclear blasts would tend to produce the opposite trend, hence the fear of a "nuclear winter" scenario from the '60s and '70s -- particulates in the atmosphere reduce incoming heat, as with the Krakatoa explosion-induced loss of summer. That spike that you refer to is likely the cusp of a mini-trend: the 40-year cooling trend that interrupts the otherwise monotonic temperature increases of 1910-present (an 0.9C rise). This is what gives the nay-sayers a leg to stand on: geologic trends running counter to or independent of the overall anthropogenic warming trend.

Mark Lipton

 

[Tom Glasgow]

Quite the dramatic chart. What's the basis for the scale?

 

[MLipton]

originally posted by Tom Glasgow:
Quite the dramatic chart. What's the basis for the scale?

The vertical scale? Just to make the changes more apparent. Are you asking about what the reference is for the zero value? If so, I believe that it is relative to the average in 1960, so purely arbitrary. The bigger graph in Jeff's link puts it all into perspective IMO.

Mark Lipton

 

[Redwinger]

originally posted by Bwood:
At least this thread makes me feel better about not having moved to Portland after finishing school,

Miss Porter's??

 

[Ian Fitzsimmons]

originally posted by MLipton:
A valid analogy?

originally posted by Brad L i l j e q u i s t:


It was a rough day.

We have to wake up and do something.

There is the well-worn observation that a frog placed in a cup of hot water will jump out, whereas one placed in cold water that is then heated on a stove will stay put until dead (disclaimer: no animals were harmed in this poast). I fear that complacency will remain until matters are well out of hand. We're already 0.5C warmer on average than we were in 1970:

How much warmer will we need to get before people drop the "if" from statements about global warming? I'm now convinced that until it becomes economically necessary to modify our behavior, little will be done in the US to combat global warming.

Cheers from the cool, rainy Midwest,
Mark Lipton

There's a general principle at work here, though I can't remember its name: the pain of not acting must become greater than the pain of acting.

The rate of global temperature increase should, theoretically, increase - right? - as the surface area covered by the melting ice caps decreases.

 

[Eden Mylunsch]

originally posted by Ian Fitzsimmons:

There's a general principle at work here, though I can't remember its name: the pain of not acting must become greater than the pain of acting.

The principle you're recalling is the one that's likely responsible for the large pool of waiters, reservationists, and barristas in Southern California restaurants.

-Eden (they also stand who serve caf au lait)

 

[Don Rice]

ba-doom-chik!

 

[Bwood]

originally posted by Eden Mylunsch:

originally posted by Bwood:
At least this thread makes me feel better about not having moved to Portland after finishing school, something we came close to doing.

You went to finishing school? Would you say that this is what got you accepted into Wellesley?

I was never really Seven Sisters material.

jb (who will be eyeing Eden's (and redwinger's) posts with a renewed sense of purpose)

 

[Ian Fitzsimmons]

If thou tipst me, do I not bleed?