NWR: Financial chaos

originally posted by Cole Kendall:
Also for Marc:Would you pay for everything in cash, getting your weekly salary in cash? Or would it be a bit easier to be able to move money around electronically, earning a bit of interest when you do not need it?

It was not that long ago when most Americans did not have bank/checking accounts (the first credit cards that could be used out of state were in the late 1950s if I recall correctly) and mortgages in some places required a 50% down payment and then gave you ten years to repay. I find life much easier with an ATM and VISA card (no balance, please) and the modern payment system where someone else uses my cash and pays me a little for the privilege.

Cole

I don't think I am taking such a draconian stance, more so a more *balanced* general use of credit by individuals and companies. I do pay for the majority of my purchases with cash and never use a debit card. I have one credit card only, with a $750 limit. I get my paycheck automatically deposited into my checking account. In practical terms, I don't see this as any different than being paid in cash. No checks issued to me, instant cash access and usability. I am not advocating a return to the antediluvian 1950's. Instead, I merely aver that credit should be used for a specific purpose not for daily ongoing business. I do believe that's a slippery slope to the kind of mess we have today, drunk on "easy money." Err, hungover on easy money.

I recognize Joe's points about borrowing against anticipated future earnings (farmer, multinational, etc.). However, the point should be to eventually *save* enough earnings to break out of that cycle. In simple terms, the farmer saves enough money over a few years to not have to borrow to buy seed to plant in the coming year. That is prudence, long forgotten if not lamented. If you have two bad crops in a row and deplete your savings and have to borrow, adios prudence but that's your tough luck and that's the capitalist contract (I am no fan of unfettered capitalism, me likey fetters). Don't like late stage capitalist society, bring the terrors like honorable people did.

And why hasn't the state of California *saved* enough money from previous tax collections so as to not have to borrow? I think that is a highly reasonable question that no politician has an answer for. Maybe there may be some financial gain on a macro level in spending now, borrowing and repaying later. But I also am a huge fan of "moral hazard" and, as a taxpayer, would rather have governmental outlays delayed until the money is actually in hand. I realize I am in a distinct minority here.

I also realize that a sudden conversion to responsible, non-borrowing based government, corporate behavior and personal finances will be a very painful shock to the body economic. But I think it is also worth it for a host of intangible reasons not strictly quantifiable. Me in minority #2. Tweaking is just delaying when the system itself is rotten. But, hey, let's just print more money that usually works. Usually.

While I'm on a buttered roll, yes, you should wait however many years it takes for you to acquire at least a 20% down payment. If that day never comes while you rent, sucks for you. I'm not saying you pay 100% in cash, no one would advocate that. Just the "traditional" 20%. To PROVE you can afford the house, now and likely going forward. It is perverse to think that in America home ownership is taken to be a right and not something earned. Or not.

I am 41 years old, have never owned a home and anticipate I never will. Because I cannot afford one. Simple as that. And no great crime to me. Oaky Chardonnay is a crime.
 
What's magic about 20%?

In other words, these things are mostly continua and there are a host of factors that influence each player's breakpoints and decisions. And there are policy choices that weigh heavily--is interest deductible to the corporation, while issuing stock costs more? Maybe California anticipates more revenue than usual next spring (as if), and wants to get started on worthy projects in the meantime?

Anyhow , the current market (look up TED spreads) is more or less saying that the only creditworthy borrower is the US Treasury.

The renting vs. buying decision is also affected by many factors. I've been both an owner (not massively leveraged) and a renter in recent years. But I'm older than you are.
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
What's magic about 20%?
As a measure of the plausibility of payment, the 20% mark has been used for many years now with a high reliability of success. So, it isn't that Pythagoras has blessed the porportion, it just works.
 
originally posted by Jeff Grossman:
originally posted by SFJoe:
What's magic about 20%?
As a measure of the plausibility of payment, the 20% mark has been used for many years now with a high reliability of success. So, it isn't that Pythagoras has blessed the porportion, it just works.
On Park Avenue, it's often 50% or more. I have no dog in the fight, but are you sure 21% isn't better?
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
What's magic about 20%?

In other words, these things are mostly continua and there are a host of factors that influence each player's breakpoints and decisions. And there are policy choices that weigh heavily--is interest deductible to the corporation, while issuing stock costs more? Maybe California anticipates more revenue than usual next spring (as if), and wants to get started on worthy projects in the meantime?

Anyhow , the current market (look up TED spreads) is more or less saying that the only creditworthy borrower is the US Treasury.

The renting vs. buying decision is also affected by many factors. I've been both an owner (not massively leveraged) and a renter in recent years. But I'm older than you are.

Nothing magical about 20%, so let's say 25%! The point is the number should be a leading indicator of financial solvency and high likelihood of full payment through the course of the loan term. If that's 16%, so be it, etc.

I was incorporated for five years so don't get me started on deductible interest and stuff like that for corporations. Now THAT'S criminal. It amazes me that everyone isn't incorporated, the scams you get away with boggle the mind. Truly, twere it up to me I'd snap my fingers and make the majority of corporate deductions go away. Permanently.

But that, kiddies, is a story for another day.
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
originally posted by Jeff Grossman:
originally posted by SFJoe:
What's magic about 20%?
As a measure of the plausibility of payment, the 20% mark has been used for many years now with a high reliability of success. So, it isn't that Pythagoras has blessed the porportion, it just works.
On Park Avenue, it's often 50% or more. I have no dog in the fight, but are you sure 21% isn't better?
Don't be Plotnickian with me, Joe. I can talk to the real deal over on OA anytime.

Park Avenue's numbers are known to be high for reasons beyond mere solvency and reliability.

The actual value -- 20%, 21%, 22% -- does not matter (and you know it). My point is that there is historical evidence that that number works, so it's a good starting point. (One might say we now have historical evidence that 0% does not work.)
 
originally posted by Marc Hanes:
Magic!
originally posted by SFJoe:

I was incorporated for five years so don't get me started on deductible interest and stuff like that for corporations. Now THAT'S criminal. It amazes me that everyone isn't incorporated, the scams you get away with boggle the mind. Truly, twere it up to me I'd snap my fingers and make the majority of corporate deductions go away. Permanently.

But that, kiddies, is a story for another day.
I'm against the mortgage interest deduction for individuals.

They are paying close attention to my advice on the Hill, let me assure you.
 
originally posted by Jeff Grossman:
originally posted by SFJoe:
originally posted by Jeff Grossman:
originally posted by SFJoe:
What's magic about 20%?
As a measure of the plausibility of payment, the 20% mark has been used for many years now with a high reliability of success. So, it isn't that Pythagoras has blessed the porportion, it just works.
I can talk to the real deal over on OA anytime.
Braggart.
 
originally posted by Chris Coad:

Beat that, punks.

Define "beat", por favor, Seor. Are we talking Kerouac/Bukowski beat or the other kind?

-Eden (way upside-down in a power line-view condo and owner of THREE cars, one of which works, but all of them look really cool and add to my stature in the neighborhood)
 
originally posted by Eden Mylunsch:
originally posted by Chris Coad:

Beat that, punks.

Define "beat", por favor, Seor. Are we talking Kerouac/Bukowski beat or the other kind?

-Eden (way upside-down in a power line-view condo and owner of THREE cars, one of which works, but all of them look really cool and add to my stature in the neighborhood)

Eat your pineapple and your fat little chicks, for tomorrow you die, you bourgeois pigs!
 
originally posted by Marc Hanes:
And why hasn't the state of California *saved* enough money from previous tax collections so as to not have to borrow? I think that is a highly reasonable question that no politician has an answer for.
As our beloved president said when proposing massive tax cuts in favor of the rich, it's your money, it should be returned to you. Reserves are not politically possible in the current climate. We see where that's gotten us. Nevertheless, those of us who do live a financially prudent life are amazed at what goes on at the governmental level and, apparently, at the level of most of our fellow citizens.
 
Housing is as good an economic engine as any. Certainly better than building a lot of pyramids. (I heard that around here recently.)

How is it a subsidy from the poor (like you and me) to the rich?
 
The mortgage tax deduction inflates the price of housing, which benefits banks, i.e., the rich. Unless you pay 100% cash for your house.
 
Not completely clear to me; perhaps it's late. If I pay less than 100% cash, then I am borrowing. I expect to pay for that privilege. The deduction gives me back a slice of my fee. Even if the initial values are boosted to pay for it, I am no worse off -- I borrowed, I paid -- just the numbers are different. No?
 
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