Community Organizer Elected President of the United States
- Thread starter Joe Dressner
- Start date
Scott Kraft
Scott Kraft
i assume you don't mean that the world would stop investing in drug research forever. but you make it sound like forever. how much do you think the world should invest in drug research every year? is there an ideal number?
Oh, gee, that's a tough one. But, yeah, I think if prices in the US matched prices in Germany or Canada global research on innovative new drugs (as opposed to new formulations of generics, say) would drop by much more than half. The risks and time of starting a brand new project would no longer be justified by the smaller pot of gold. It's already pretty tough in many fields (new antibiotics, say).
Most of the world is free riding on our pricing in many fields. I wish I knew how to get them to pay up. The market has a variety of other failings, skewed by the way we pay for drugs in the US (chronic diseases are much more attractive than severe acute diseases in general).
But you could throw away the whole drug budget and the US would still be paying way more than other rich countries for health care that doesn't work as well as measured by outcomes.
Some backdrop: historically, drug R&D needed to make and/or screen 10,000 molecules to get a registered drug. That number, however, has been steadily increasing over the past 2-3 decades as a result of more stringent regulations and greater competition from generics and biopharmaceuticals. Compounding that reality, though, was a strategic shift begun in the '80s to focus on "blockbuster" drugs starting with Cimetidine (Tagamet) and continuing through Prozac et al. Together, these factors conspired to reduce drugs in the "pipeline" (phase 1-3 clinical trials) produced by Big Pharma to a total of 8 in a recent calendar year, despite having a far costlier R&D effort than any other sector of industry. It isn't clear that this is sustainable, period. Several companies have already decided that they will simply do the development work on drug candidates found by the biotech industry. We'll see how that goes. In many ways, Big Pharma is looking more and more like the Big 3 auto makers, and we know how that story played out.
Mark Lipton
Tim Buzinski
Tim Buzinski
Jonathan Loesberg
Jonathan Loesberg
Wait, that's an idea. We guarantee quality health care to anyone who brings in a new wine made of a different grape and tasting of the place in which it is grown. The scramble to import those wines would enhance the kinds of different wines and get some people who didn't have it adequate health care. Not a solution maybe, but a small step toward general improvement in two areas. Will someone propose a bill?
scottreiner
scott reiner
Jeff Grossman
Jeff Grossman
How about we drop our prices to match the rest of the world and simply put Big Pharma on the TARP list?
That's easy. Raise prices. They'll buy, anyway... when you're sick, pricey pills suddenly seem affordable.
Kay Bixler
Kay Bixler
And when you're sick and poor death suddenly seems like a reasonable option.
I wonder when was the last time the head of Glaxo flew coach? You know, just to save a few bucks to put towards R&D.
Fun stuff, but the problem with antibiotics these days is paying for expensive clinical development.
I'm going this weekend to the big antibiotic/antiviral meeting, ICAAC. A couple of years ago they had a panel discussion where the business guys talked to the scientists about antibiotics. The talk was called, "What is this NPV, and why is it killing my development program?"
Some of it seems structural to me.
From where I sit, put more money into research universities.
But seriously, the only way to solve the free-rider problem is to stop, but it looks like drug development is grinding to a halt anyway.
Personally, I think we are reaching the end of a cycle in the technology for developing new drugs and that only when a new technological leap has been made will there be another steady stream of more effective drugs.
Maybe through the study of the human immune system...
You know my take, the American experiment looks to be a failed one. I think this country may have become un-governable in any rational way.
Let's break it up and let the states go their separate ways. People can choose to live in a state that reflects their belief system and social outlook.
FWIW, you'd have to move and I could be in trouble as well.
Jeff Grossman
Jeff Grossman
That would make everybody comfortable but it lessens the chance for greatness. Imagine the wastefulness of fifty little armies, ~thirty little navies, etc etc.
And, isn't that an opening for the UK to reclaim their lost colonies?