NWR: Election Statistics
- Thread starter Ian Fitzsimmons
- Start date
Anyone want to make predictions?
I'm thinking the Electoral College is 290 to 248, Obama wins. Obama gets Ohio and the rest of the Rust Belt, Colorado, and Nevada, but loses Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia (in a very close race).
In the Senate, Dems get wins in CT, MA, OH, MO, WI, VA, and IN and losses in NV, NE, AZ, ND, and MT. Dems are left in control of the Senate 53-47 (assuming King caucuses with the Dems).
In the House, Republicans maintain control but lose around 5-8 seats, specifically in Illinois and California, but offset with pickups in NC and NY.
I'm thinking the Electoral College is 290 to 248, Obama wins. Obama gets Ohio and the rest of the Rust Belt, Colorado, and Nevada, but loses Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia (in a very close race).
In the Senate, Dems get wins in CT, MA, OH, MO, WI, VA, and IN and losses in NV, NE, AZ, ND, and MT. Dems are left in control of the Senate 53-47 (assuming King caucuses with the Dems).
In the House, Republicans maintain control but lose around 5-8 seats, specifically in Illinois and California, but offset with pickups in NC and NY.
kirk wallace
kirk wallace
Yule, your scenarios are very much in line with mine; except i am hoping that BHO pulls out a win in VA; and i think a 10 seat loss for the R's in the house is possible (but i am going agains polling data in thinking that Kathy Bookvar in PA 8th and Sean Maloney in NY18 can win).
Ian Fitzsimmons
Ian Fitzsimmons
This was my impression, but I didn't have the time to pick apart the particulars of why. Seemed more narrative than analytical.
All my info is filtered by the news outlets (including Silver); it'a hard to draw conclusions that are independent of theirs.
To me, Virginia is the swingiest of the swing states this year. I wouldn't be surprised if Virginia goes blue, but I'm an eternal pessimist.
I would be very surprised if FL or NC goes Blue.
I also think PA is going to be extremely close...closer than OH (my one off-the-wall prediction), but still an Obama win.
I think Tester-Rehberg in MT and Donnelly-Mourdock in IN are the two closest Senate races. Both are coin-flips, IMO.
A friend of mine is convinced Baldwin is toast in WI, but I think she pulls it out.
Carmona seems to have run a good campaign in AZ. Shame if he loses, but it augurs well for Dems in the Southwest in the foreseeable future (and I include Texas as part of the SW).
I would be very surprised if FL or NC goes Blue.
I also think PA is going to be extremely close...closer than OH (my one off-the-wall prediction), but still an Obama win.
I think Tester-Rehberg in MT and Donnelly-Mourdock in IN are the two closest Senate races. Both are coin-flips, IMO.
A friend of mine is convinced Baldwin is toast in WI, but I think she pulls it out.
Carmona seems to have run a good campaign in AZ. Shame if he loses, but it augurs well for Dems in the Southwest in the foreseeable future (and I include Texas as part of the SW).
Zachary Ross
Zachary Ross
And Scott Brown - Elizabeth Warren?
Steve Guattery
Steve Guattery
Jeez, I hope you're wrong. I've been surprised by the letters in the usually right-leaning Sunbury Daily Item, which have been at least 50% in favor of Obama and the Democrats this year. That paper endorsed Obama, too, which was out of character, but not a surprise given some earlier editorials. If Obama loses here, I think he'll lose by even more in Ohio.
kirk wallace
kirk wallace
I love Tammy B and have supported her campaigns since her first state race in 1992, and this time was no exception, but I don't have high hopes that she can win this one. ITB (political business, not wine business) folks that I trust feel very good about Donnelly. Absent voter supression of extreme variety, i don't think PA should be as close as you fear.
Romney seemed to be gaining momentum in PA and both campaigns seemed to be investing a surprising amount of resources in the last week. This could be Romney tossing a hail mary, but it could also be internal polling suggesting PA is closer than the public polls indicate. I also think that lower unemployment rate in the state and the auto bailout are helping Obama in Ohio in ways that aren't helping him in PA. But, I am the eternal pessimist, so all of this might just be much ado about nothing.
I hope I am wrong, but, you always need at least one counter-intuitive prediction to keep things interesting.
And I think Warren beats Brown in MA.
I like Donnelly a lot. He ran a great campaign, but I just think IN demographics are going to keep this close. Luckily, the "inflicting his opinions" and "gift from God" comments helped his chances considerably. Seriously, the DSCC should send the Tea Party a thank you card this year.
I hope I am wrong, but, you always need at least one counter-intuitive prediction to keep things interesting.
And I think Warren beats Brown in MA.
I like Donnelly a lot. He ran a great campaign, but I just think IN demographics are going to keep this close. Luckily, the "inflicting his opinions" and "gift from God" comments helped his chances considerably. Seriously, the DSCC should send the Tea Party a thank you card this year.
Romney is campaigning in PA to try to win the popular vote. If he thought he could still win the electoral vote, he wouldn't be in PA. PA doesn't help him if he loses...well, any number of scenarios that Sam Wang, Nate Silver, or any number of analysts will explain in terms of the math. But PA alone, even if he won it (which, unless all the polls are wrong, he won't), wouldn't really help him much.
Ian Fitzsimmons
Ian Fitzsimmons
It would give him a cushion in the increasingly likely case that he loses in Ohio.
Winning the popular vote without an electoral college victory is a weak consolation prize for Romney, though a reasonable secondary objective for the party.
Winning the popular vote without an electoral college victory is a weak consolation prize for Romney, though a reasonable secondary objective for the party.
Bill Lundstrom
Bill Lundstrom
Unless Romney is looking 4 years down the road.
Ian Fitzsimmons
Ian Fitzsimmons
If he loses this cycle, it's hard to see how he could be nominated again, given the elasticity of his positions during this campaign. Also, fwiw, his wife has said he won't.