Rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere and wine

Florida Jim

Florida Jim
An article that I don’t fully understand but thought was of interest:

“Lisa Perrotti-Brown
28 Sep 2017 | News & Views
Rising alcohol levels in wines has been a trend in recent years, noted by members of the industry and consumers alike. Some blame critics’ preferences for higher-octane styles and winemakers pandering to these preferences; others blame global warming accumulating and concentrating the sugars in wines earlier in the growing seasons and forcing winemakers to harvest at higher sugar levels. Based on my experience and many conversations with winemakers, I can assure you, we critics and winemakers have been scratching our heads. Here’s our baffling modern era phenomenon: we can see that ripe phenolics (e.g. tannins) and flavors (a myriad of different compounds) are lagging further and further behind sugar accumulation in grapes with practically every vintage. And for sure, in not every case are higher than average growing season heat, sunshine days, modern vinicultural practices and/or stylistic preferences the obvious reasons. It appears that, to achieve the same physiological ripeness and qualities of wines we have known and loved in the past, we’re having to accept wines at higher and higher alcohol levels, seemingly with every vintage. Within the lifetimes of today’s winemakers, this “ripeness” conundrum is a very real occurrence faced each harvest in regions throughout the wine world.

The ultimate goal for winemakers’ each vintage is to harvest grapes that are ripe, and by “ripe,” I don’t mean just the optimal sugar/acid ratio to create a semblance of balanced weight and freshness on the palate, but also fully resolved tannins (phenolics) and fully expressed flavor compounds. Without ripe tannins and flavors, what you get are wines that are, well, lean, green and mean (hard), which is precisely the effect of grapes harvested too early—something of a backlash trend in our modern era in order to assuage consumers’ desires for lower alcohol levels. Yes, yes, yes, the alcohol may arguably be more “in balance” in those scrawny, harsh, bitter wines coming from earlier harvested grapes. But at the cost of flavor and texture? Sorry, I’ll opt for the higher alcohol any day, if that is what it takes to get all the complex flavor layers and soft, fine-grained, non-bitter tannins that I want and love.

Here’s the million dollar question: Why do the sugars in grapes appear to be rising at a much faster rate than rising temperatures (or not) around the planet alone would account for? The obvious culprit to consider is the impact of the dramatic increase in CO2 in our atmosphere since the industrial era.

Why CO2? Remember this formula for photosynthesis from grade school?
6CO2 + 6H2O —> C6H12O6 + 6O2
or, to put it into words...
carbon dioxide + water —> glucose (sugar) + oxygen
And here’s what NASA reports is happening with CO2:

“During ice ages, CO2 levels were around 200 parts per million (ppm), and during the warmer interglacial periods, they hovered around 280 ppm. In 2013, CO2 levels surpassed 400 ppm for the first time in recorded history.”

I’ve made no secret of my fondness of Australian wines and therefore feel that I can say, without prejudice, that the higher alcohol phenomenon has been felt particularly within the Australian wine industry. I remember from a few years ago the occurrence of what I refer to as the “skinny” Chardonnay and Pinot Noir trend, whereby winemakers would early harvest these varieties in an attempt to make lower alcohol wines. The problem was they had no flavor, and the reds possessed harsh, bitter, underripe tannins, ergo, the lean, green, meanies. (As you can imagine, it was a short-lived trend, but this rather facile, Band-Aid solution has reared its ugly head in other parts of the wine world.) More recently, in efforts to hedge against what are perceived as the effects of Global Warming, there has been a scramble toward purchasing vineyard land in cooler climates such as Tasmania, looking to obtain sites that can achieve complex aroma/flavor compounds at lower alcohol levels that some styles of sought-after grapes such as Pinot Noir and Chardonnay demand.

It is likely that Aussie winemaker frustration sparked some of the first research on the CO2 effect on vines by Rachel Kilmister, et al. in Victoria, Australia, as can be read in a 2016 article published in Wine & Viticulture Journal. This article, titled Climate change: Effect of elevated CO2 and temperature on phenology, carbohydrates, yield and grape composition - preliminary results, opens with the comment: “While there has been a great deal of interest in the effects of elevated temperature on vine phenology and a number of published scientific studies in this area (Webb et al. 2012, Petrie and Sandras 2009), there has been little study of the effects of elevated CO2 on the vine.” Among other findings, this article concludes, ominously: “The primary effect of elevated CO2 on a plant is to increase the rate of leaf photosynthesis. This generally results in increased carbohydrate levels, which may be consumed in general metabolism, used for growth of plant organs such as shoots and fruit, or stored.”

Something of a cliffhanger, for sure, but not enough yet to get the wine world up in arms. And so, imagine my surprise when, a couple of weeks ago, I arrived for a visit and tasting at Dominus Winery in the Napa Valley to have Christian Moueix greet me excitedly with a glint in his eye and some information he and winemaker Tod Mostero wanted to share. Mostero went on to explain that the team at Dominus had been looking into a possible link between rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere and rising alcohol levels. They were kind enough to offer me what they had put together thus far: a graph from NASA plotting the rising CO2 levels in Earth’s atmosphere since 1950 (something that will come as no shock to anyone who has been paying attention) and an article in The Nature Education Knowledge Project entitled: Effects of Rising Atmospheric Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide on Plants.

In a nutshell, the report finds in the favor of our suspicions: that more CO2 availability causes plants to create more sugar. You might be thinking that this is a good thing, right? It depends. For many years it was just assumed that right along with all that extra sugar plants were creating, they were creating just as much of all the good stuff—nutrients and minerals. However, now it appears that was just wishful thinking.

This month The Agenda published an article called The Great Nutrient Collapse. In here, Dr. Irakli Loladze discusses new research he, as well as the USDA, are currently conducting regarding the effects of rising CO2 levels on how plants grow and, perhaps most importantly, on the amounts/types of nutrients they produce. The penny begins to drop with an experiment using zooplankton:

“But as the zooplankton experiment showed, greater volume and better quality might not go hand-in-hand. In fact, they might be inversely linked. As best scientists can tell, this is what happens: Rising CO2 revs up photosynthesis, the process that helps plants transform sunlight to food. This makes plants grow, but it also leads them to pack in more carbohydrates like glucose at the expense of other nutrients that we depend on, like protein, iron and zinc.”

I’ll cut to the chase here: it seems increasingly likely that one of the effects of rising CO2 levels on plants is an overall increase in the ratio of carbohydrates to minerals. In other words, apart from the shocking revelation that our plant-based produce is rapidly becoming more fattening and less nutritious when harvested, plants are making more sugar during the growing seasons around the world—and probably earlier in the growing seasons—and apparently apart from the effects of increased sunshine/heat, while at the expense of other grape components. And, of course, more sugar racked up before the tannins and flavors ripen equals more alcohol in wines, especially those of quality.

This very much explained what Moueix and Mostero had been experiencing in recent years, in both Napa and Bordeaux. Mostero commented on their behalf:

“Over the past three decades, we have witnessed in Napa, Bordeaux and throughout other vineyards in the world, an ever-growing increase in sugar concentration in grapes as they ripen. This phenomenon seems to be independent of temperature since this occurs in cool as well as in warmer vintages. On average, we are not picking later than we have in the past, and yet sugar concentration is higher in the must at harvest, and alcohol is higher in the wines. After looking carefully at so many of the possible factors that may increase sugar accumulation, the factor that seems most compelling is the increasingly higher level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.”

With many pieces of the puzzle of this association between rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere and rising alcohol levels falling into place, there was one piece for me that still didn’t fit. It was a conversation I had with Jeffrey Grosset in Australia’s Clare Valley back in 2009, in which he suspected that rising CO2 levels could be something of a silver lining for him. He had, in fact, been able to harvest earlier at lower alcohol levels since the 1990s. He recently reconfirmed his observations:

“What I can say is that we have slightly reduced alcohols compared to the 1990s and particularly since 2003... While it may seem likely that as a vineyard owner in this region I might argue against negative thoughts about the future here, I am baffled by the extent of the error in popular thought (including my own until recent years). I considered establishing a vineyard in a ‘cooler’ region as insurance or a hedge, back in the late 1980s and many times since, only for any practical support for this idea to fail to materialize. Increasing CO2 is allowing grapevines to be more efficient.”

What Grosset was saying didn’t seem to make sense to me...until I considered the grape variety he mainly works with to produce his finest wines: Riesling.

The ripening of flavor compounds and tannins in grapes is an incredibly complex subject. This is because there are so many different compounds and the types and combinations differ with each and every grape variety used to make wine. This is precisely why wines made from different grapes taste so different. In a book that I wrote and published a few years ago, Taste Like a Wine Critic: A Guide to Understanding Wine Quality, on the topic of ripening, I noted:

“With regards to the ripening of grape derived aroma compounds, it is important to note that the concentration of some aroma (flavor) compounds and aroma precursor compounds increase as the grape approaches desired sugar accumulation levels while others can degrade, necessitating that the winemaker has a very specific knowledge of their grape variety and a clear idea of the wine style plus the aroma compounds that he/she wants to produce/preserve.”

The fact that Grosset works mainly with Riesling while Moueix and Mostero work mainly with Cabernet Sauvignon reminded me of an article I had read a few years ago when I was conducting research for my book. Entitled “Comparison of major volatile compounds from Riesling and Cabernet Sauvignon grapes (Vitis vinifera L.) from fruitset to harvest”, by C.M Kalua and P.K. Boss, May 26, 2010, the article concluded this:

“At veraison, terpene production in both varieties was low, but Riesling grapes produced some terpenes (geraniol and α-muurolene) post-veraison. Generally, esters and aldehydes were the major class of compounds from Riesling grapes, while Cabernet Sauvignon showed a greater tendency to form alcohols.”

Without dedicated research, it is difficult to make a definitive conclusion; however, based on the related research and anecdotal evidence so far, it appears that rising CO2 levels in the atmosphere may indeed be a boon for some grape varieties and styles and a curse for others.

The mounting body of evidence drawing a correlation between rising atmospheric CO2 levels and the alcoholic content in wines suggests that warmer vintages and climates may exacerbate the problem, but upping-sticks and heading for cooler ground will not get rid of the problem entirely. So, what options—besides earlier harvesting—are available? Well, there is another pretty simple winemaking solution worth considering that is going sound like heresy to most of the legal authorities in the wine industry: watering-back. Over the course of my tastings and visits over the last few years, on many occasions I’ve queried winemakers about moderate alcohol levels in wines sporting physiological ripeness—wondering how they achieved this—and I’ve had at least a handful of them look me in the eye and matter-of-fact tell me about the practical need to water-back (add water to wines—usually during fermentation and used under the excuse of preventing a stuck fermentation—to bring down the eventual alcohol level, in practice). In Australia, where this practice is illegal, they call the offending watering hose “the black snake.” California is one of the few places in the world where it is legal to add water to unfinished wine. OK, sure, in the course of my many years of tastings, I’ve tasted some god-awful wine monstrosities resulting from raisined grape juice made into wine and watered-back. Monolithic, hard, unpleasant to drink, is all I can say. BUT, I’ve also tasted some beautifully ripe, expressive wines that have had water added to the ferment to tame the alcohol, and I have no complaints. Chaptalization has been fully accepted in some of the greatest wine regions of the world (e.g. Burgundy, Champagne, Bordeaux, etc.) for centuries as a means of increasing alcohol to create balance. It may be an inconvenient truth, but given our new rising CO2 levels paradigm and the mounting body of evidence, I believe we need to consider better options for legally creating “balanced” wines other than harvesting underripe grapes.

The results of watering-back may not be as unpalatable as earlier harvesting, but it too is a Band-Aid solution to a problem that, in the long-term, requires a holistic approach to achieve the best quality results. Really, what is needed is for winemakers to be able to create balance in the vineyard and harvest grapes that do not require such adjustments. Here’s where Christian Moueix and Tod Mostero offered to share some of the measures they have been practicing in Napa and Bordeaux:

“If atmospheric CO2 is responsible for an early and ever-rising sugar concentration, our efforts as farmers may not reduce sugar in the berries or help attain phenolic and flavor ripeness when sugar levels are lower. However, we can take action to manage or, at the very least, avoid exacerbating this inevitable problem. Berry dehydration can exacerbate the problem of high sugar concentration. We must work to manage the vineyard canopy, optimizing row orientation, pruning and canopy shape, to provide shade, if necessary, to the fruit and avoid overheating by the sun. This is particularly applicable in the sunny dry-summer climate vineyards of the world like Napa. If properly managed, dry farming helps the vine’s resistance to climate extremes and heat by increasing root density and depth. This allows vines to access and pump water from deep within the soil, increasing its natural cooling capacity through transpiration, which also reduces the risk of berry dehydration. The selection of grapevine clones attaining phenolic and flavor ripeness at lower potential alcohol levels may mitigate some of the effects of generally increasing sugar levels. Yeast strains that consume more sugar and produce less alcohol could help to reduce the effect of high concentrations of sugar in grapes by producing more balanced wines with lower alcohols.”

This discussion clearly needs more dedicated research in order to draw definitive conclusions, but I strongly feel it is time to open this discussion. In my view, this is one of the most important issues facing our wine industry and, even more importantly, our food chain. I do hope/implore that more scientific resources are aimed at this worthy subject in the future.”
 
And Jamie Goode’s response:

Is elevated atmospheric CO2 to blame for rising alcohol levels in wine?

Lisa Perrotti-Brown of the Wine Advocate recently published an article that caused quite a stir on the Internets. Lisa begins by saying that that the rise in alcohol levels in many wines is inexplicable. It has left her scratching her head. She’s puzzled, as are many of the winemakers that she’s been speaking with. Baffled, in fact:

Based on my experience and many conversations with winemakers, I can assure you, we critics and winemakers have been scratching our heads. Here’s our baffling modern era phenomenon: we can see that ripe phenolics (e.g. tannins) and flavors (a myriad of different compounds) are lagging further and further behind sugar accumulation in grapes with practically every vintage. And for sure, in not every case are higher than average growing season heat, sunshine days, modern vinicultural practices and/or stylistic preferences the obvious reasons. It appears that, to achieve the same physiological ripeness and qualities of wines we have known and loved in the past, we’re having to accept wines at higher and higher alcohol levels, seemingly with every vintage.

As I’m writing this I’m drinking a Pinot Noir from California (Jamie Kutch’s Signal Ridge Vineyard, Mendocino Ridge), that’s just 12% alcohol, and tastes beautifully ripe. And yesterday I met with Francisco Baettig of Errazuriz who has brought alcohol levels down in their icon wines from close to 15% to bang on 14%, and the wines are better for it. Mick and Jeanine Craven make a lovely Faure Syrah from Stellenbosch (warm climate) that’s below 12% alcohol and isn’t hard and mean! So I’d begin by questioning Lisa’s view on what constitutes ripeness, and her assertion that this is all that baffling. If you pick late in warm climates, you’ll end up with high alcohol levels. But more on that later. The real issue I want to address is the theory Lisa proposes for this problem with high alcohol.

Here’s the million dollar question: Why do the sugars in grapes appear to be rising at a much faster rate than rising temperatures (or not) around the planet alone would account for? The obvious culprit to consider is the impact of the dramatic increase in CO2 in our atmosphere since the industrial era.

She then goes on to propose a theory that rising CO2 levels increases plant photosynthesis, which results in higher production of carbohydrates. This in turn, she says, causes sugar levels in grapes to rise higher, and in advance of phenolic/flavour ripeness. If we want our wines to have proper flavour, she asserts, we are therefore going to have to live with higher alcohol levels. Lisa then proposes that one solution to these higher alcohol levels would be watering back wines, so that you can have ripe flavours and sensible alcohol levels.

She concludes:

This discussion clearly needs more dedicated research in order to draw definitive conclusions, but I strongly feel it is time to open this discussion. In my view, this is one of the most important issues facing our wine industry and, even more importantly, our food chain.

So, I’ll take the invitation she offers and join the discussion. The theory she proposes sounds quite interesting: but is it scientifically plausible? Does higher atmospheric CO2 result in faster accumulation of sugars in grape berries, making it hard to harvest ripe grapes without high potential alcohol? Let’s dig a bit deeper into this issue.

First of all, there is no doubt that CO2 levels have risen. From 1700-1850 they were pretty steady at around 280 ppm. Then, around 1900, things started changing, with vastly increased CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. By 1960 they had reached 320 ppm, then by 1990 they hit 350 ppm, and now they are at around 400 ppm. Projections are that by the end of this century, they’ll be around 700-800 ppm.

And there’s also no doubt that elevated CO2 levels are going to affect plant growth. But before we discuss that, let’s take a quick look at the process of photosynthesis. All life on the planet, with the exception of some weird things that live near deep sea hydrothermal vents, depend on photosynthesis. It’s the process by which plants take light, carbon dioxide and water, and make glucose and oxygen. The significance of glucose is that it’s the way the plant fixes carbon: everything in a plant is made using this process, and this carbon provides the skeleton for the organic (containing carbon) molecules that make up the structure of plants. The plant takes up mineral ions and nutrients from the soil, and uses these to combine with carbon skeleton to make stuff. Basically, plants are very sophisticated chemical factories.

Photosynthesis can be limited by three factors: light, temperature and carbon dioxide. If all three are increased, then the rate will increase, until one of the three is in short supply. Generally speaking, CO2 is the limiting factor quite a bit of the time. Part of the reason for this is that opening up the special pores on the leaf surface, known as stomata, allows precious water vapour to escape. So the plant does a calculation: I need the CO2, but I also need the water. When water is short, and I’m losing too much of it, I’ll close my stomata, and just stop photosynthesizing.

So, we have global warming. CO2 is playing two roles here: its role as a greenhouse gas in elevating global temperatures, and also its role as a frequent limiting factor in photosynthesis. And temperature also stimulates photosynthesis, up to a point: if temperatures are too high the plant will close its stomata and stop photosynthesizing. So if we think about plants adapting to climate change, we need to explore the potential dual roles of elevated CO2 concentrations.

This has been widely researched in important crop plants. Elevated CO2 levels increase the rate of photosynthesis. But they also decrease water use by plants: this is because plants don’t need to open their stomata so often to get the same dose of CO2. The production of leaf ‘non-structural’ carbohydrates increases, and the levels of nitrogen decrease. This is likely because there is a lower need for water, so fewer nutrients (dissolved in water) are taken up by the roots. This decreases the rate at which nitrogen is incorporated into organic products made by the plant: in other words, plants produce more carbohydrate and less protein.

This is where we need to start thinking about the implications for ripening of grape berries. Lisa’s assertion is that more photosynthesis means more sugar production, which in turn results in more sugar accumulation in grape berries, in advance of flavour ripeness. This ignores the fact that grape berries are sophisticated chemical factories.

Berry ripening consists of two distinct phases, separated by a lag phase. Berries are for the birds, and they are designed as a dispersal mechanism for seeds. In the first phase of growth, the seeds develop, and the berry chemistry is designed to make these developing berries unpalatable. They accumulate high levels of acids, tannins and methoxypyrazines, and they taste nasty. Then there’s the lag phase: they stop growing. The seeds mature. And then there’s veraison, where everything changes. This is where the berry decides it is going to put all its focus into making itself appealing to birds. It changes colour, the skin softens, it swells, the acid levels drop, the tannins begin to change and nice flavours begin to develop. And, of course, it becomes sweet.

But this ripening is a tightly regulated biochemical process. For the preceding four months or so the vine has been busy photosynthesizing, but sugars haven’t been accumulating in the berries. It’s now that the berry begins to accumulate sugars, and this is an active process. There are proteins in the cell walls that decide to let sugars through: they don’t just turn up uninvited. There are three families of proteins important in this process (acidic invertases, sucrose synthases, sugar transporters), and there’s also some biosynthesis of sucrose within the berry itself. This is not a simple matter of the vine photosynthesizing more and the sugar levels correspondingly increasing in the berries. This fact is reinforced by the observation that plant hormones such as abscisic acid (ABA) and brassinosteroids play a crucial role in berry ripening. The environmental signaling, mediated by these hormones, has a strong role in ripening. Viticultural interventions such as leaf removal, dropping crop, canopy management and deficit irrigation, for example, rely on influencing plant signaling which in turn affects ripening in complex ways.

So let’s look at attempts to study this in grape vines. One Italian group have worked on this using a technique called FACE, which stands for free-air CO2 enrichment, which is a good technique because it avoids using chambers, which can alter growth patterns. They found that when CO2 was elevated, the acids and sugars increased in the developing grapes. But by grape maturity, there were no differences in berry composition caused by higher CO2. As for global warming, their conclusion was that higher CO2 on its own had very little effect and that any yield-increasing effects were mitigated or cancelled by the higher temperatures that rises in CO2 cause. In the discussion in their paper, they point out that while for annual and perennial plants elevated CO2 increases biomass, crop yield and light/nutrient/water use efficiency. But for a crop like a vine, that sees this increase over many years, the initial increase in photosynthesis might be down-graded because of the plant’s response to excess accumulation of carbohydrates.

Another experiment was carried out on Touriga Franca grapes in the Douro region of Portugal, this time using chambers. They looked at a range of parameters, and found significant differences between the control plants and those grown in higher CO2. But when it came to berry composition (they also made wines from the different treatments) there were no significant differences. The quality of the wines produced was pretty much unaffected by the higher CO2 levels.

More recently, a project has begun in Australia, and the preliminary results have been published (although this project is ongoing). Rachel Kilminster and colleagues have collaborated in studying a Shiraz vineyard in the Murray Darling region. So far they have studied the effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the vines over two growing seasons. They have found that elevated temperature has a stronger effect in advancing the phenology (the rate at which the vine goes through its growth stages) than elevated CO2. The higher CO2 affects starch levels (known as non-structural carbohydrates) because of a higher rate of photosynthesis. There was no difference seen in the water-soluble carbohydates (sugars), suggesting that sugar levels are actually quite tightly regulated in vines. The higher CO2 treatments increased the carbohydrate status of the plants (vines store carbohydrate in their trunks and roots as a reserve), and the result of this was increased grape yield. Interestingly, higher CO2 resulted in better acid levels in the grapes, but there were only minor differences in anthocyanin and tannin levels.

So where does this leave Lisa’s hypothesis that higher alcohol in wine is a result of runaway sugar levels in grapes caused by elevated atmospheric CO2?

The science doesn’t seem to back it up. The reality is much more complex than the simplistic picture that she paints. A faster-growing, bigger vine, doesn’t necessarily mean higher sugar levels in grapes as they develop.

Nor do anecdotal observations. Atmospheric CO2 levels have risen in an almost linear fashion, but high alcohol wine suddenly became a problem in the mid-to-late 1990s, almost out of nowhere. And it’s quite region specific: regions where American critics, with a stylistic preference for sweeter-tasting wines with very soft tannins from the outset, have been powerful. The evidence suggests that alcohol became an issue with changing stylistic preferences for bigger, sweeter red wines.

There’s no doubting that climate change is having an effect on the world’s wine regions, and in many cases there are problems where harvest time is being pulled into summer conditions, where sugar levels rise rapidly in a short space of time, rather than the more customary autumnal conditions. But there’s no need to invoke a direct effect of higher CO2.

In many regions, there’s a move to picking earlier, and the resulting wines are often purer, taste nicer, will age better, and require less adjustment in the winery. This seems to suggest that higher alcohol levels, to a large extent, are an avoidable consequence of the ill-advised flirtation by many winemakers with sweeter, riper red wines, and a misconception of the nature of appropriate grape ripeness. The wine world had a moment of madness, and it seems that in many regions good sense is now prevailing. If you are picking late, looking for soft, ripe, smooth tannins and a sweet fruit profile in your red wines, then you may well have a problem with higher alcohol levels. Good viticulture (trying to get even ripeness) and picking at the right time is the answer to this.
 
I have read that one of the significant changes from the wine-making of the past is the health of the vines. Vines used to be afflicted by leaf roll, in particular, but also numerous other diseases that limited their ability to efficiently process climate into berries.

Vines today are typically free of such woes and the berries they produce are not like the berries of yesterday. Our expectations need to be adjusted as to how much a vine can bear and the organoleptic qualities of the fruit borne.

P-B's suggestions are curious. First, she says to give the vines shade; how this changes their access to CO2 in the atmosphere escapes me. Then she suggests dry farming so that the roots pump extra water into the berries; huh? Finally, being the WA, she invokes interventionist solutions: clonal selection and yeast-fucking. Meh.

G's suggestion is better, if vague. He says, "Be a good farmer."

I think there is an expectation problem here, first and foremost. Today's vines simply will not perform like yesterday's vines, and so today's fruit is not like yesterday's fruit. Wines are going to be different. If we want more mineral expression (and less froot masking it) then we can choose less vigorous rootstocks and plant in worse soils, etc.
 
Wondering about how many angels can dance on the head of the needle while Rome burns.

We are so seriously fucked if we don't jump on dealing with it now. The sad irony is, we can, if we want to.
 
sadder still, we won't. that is sooo obvious.

selfishly, i'm relieved that i'm 65 instead of 25. gonna be a crazy century.
 
Jim:

I think the key info is in Jamie's response, paras 12 (Photosynthesis can be limited by three factors [...]), 13, and 14.

Through photosynthesis, plants convert incoming solar radiation into chemical potential energy manifested in in carbon-hydrogen bonds (carbohydrates, sugars) which they used to build tissue, or, through regulated conversion of the energy into other forms, to power the building of tissue. So, assuming adequate water and other nutrients (especially nitrogen and phosphorus), plant productivity is potentially limited by (1) the amount of incoming sunlight (energy source), (2) ambient temperature (which maintains soil water in liquid phase, and also affects the rate of enzymatic activity in photosynthesis), and (3) the availability of carbon atoms.

Increasing partial pressure of carbon in the air tends, on average, to elevate temperatures slightly, up-regulating rubisco (enzyme) activity, thereby hastening the pace of photosynthesis (up to a point), and potentially increasing the rate of sugar formation.

The increase in atmospheric partial pressure of carbon, however, also means that plants are able to take carbon atoms into their tissue more easily, simply because there are more such atoms (bound in carbon dioxide molecules) in each cubic millimeter of air. As Richard Feynman said, "Most people think trees grow from the ground up; in fact, they grow from the air down" (or something very similar). This phenomenon is known as carbon fertilization, and its effects are the subject of keen ecological investigation.

In any event, different plants respond to the increased abundance of atmospheric carbon in different ways: some build more roots; some more branch tissue; some more fruit (reproductive capacity); some simply become more efficient by using less water to maintain a modestly increased overall plant mass.

The surface-layer heating effects of increasing partial pressure of carbon dioxide are variable and complex at fine scales, as are also the responses of different plant varieties to increases in atmospheric carbon abundance. So it shouldn't be surprising to observe varying effects on different grape types in different specific environmental conditions. But some overall trend towards more sugars & increased productive efficiency (earlier harvesting) would tend to agree with what you'd predict based on the general theory.

Hope this makes sense - I await ritual correction by Mark of my errors and oversights in the above.
 
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