originally posted by Robert Dentice:
originally posted by VLM:
This is the true situation for most producers. Maybe 90%+.
I would not say 90%. Jon Bonne's letter does a great job of showing that the tariffs will hurt the U.S. side of the equation far more than the producer side in France due to global non-U.S. demand.
I know Germany the best and many of the producers I love could easily sell all of their production in Germany let alone other countries. I think we would be surprised at how little many producers need the U.S.
The devastating impact will be hardest on U.S. importers / distributors / retailers / restaurants etc.
This will certainly hurt some growers.
Yeah, Jon's was a good letter. I'm sure you're right about a lot of tiny producers and those with diverse export markets but I think you'd be surprised by how many will have a really difficult time shifting if the US represents a large percentage of their market.
Obviously, my number is made up but I think that almost every vigneron I know will have a hard time shifting that much wine to other markets. I think it'll hurt a lot more people than we would otherwise think because we happen to like the wines so much we don't understand how selling them to other markets would be difficult. Over the holiday I heard about some that really surprised me hence my sense of foreboding bordering on panic for folks I care about.