COVID-19: from the restaurant scene March 2020

originally posted by Jayson Cohen:
I meant to send the sad news a few days ago:

The Bachelor Farmer closes.

I believe Nathan recommended this restaurant to me when I was in Minneapolis for work a couple years ago. And I’m glad I was able to go.
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I expect most restaurants won't be able to re-open.

Here is the thing that I think most folks don't realize, opening back up to 50% business isn't possible. For lots of places even 80% business means failure. Some of this is just the late stage capitalism rush to the bottom, prices haven't kept up with rising costs so margins are super slim. Some of it is structural and that'll need fixing too.

If we are able to open back up, we'll need permanent help from our landlord with the lease and we'll need to raise prices on our food menu. We'll see if people can stomach that.

Most people already viewed Rue Cler as an expensive, special occasion restaurant which is crazy. Dinner for 2 was probably less than Outback. Maybe we just lean into that and become a truly high end restaurant. This is not at all what the restaurant was supposed to be and has been throughout the last 14 years but restaurants like ours might be a relic of a bygone era.

One last thing about re-opening. I hope folks realize from the above that 50-60-70% capacity won't be a viable business for most restaurants. Also, I think what's probably going to happen with re-opening it'll be wishy-washy and that everyone will be responsible for their own health risk.
 
originally posted by VLM:

Most people already viewed Rue Cler as an expensive, special occasion restaurant which is crazy. Dinner for 2 was probably less than Outback.
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Interesting comparison.

Presumably one difference is that Outback operates with higher margins/lower quality products, so they make more profit. They are also a large chain and can spread profits/losses across locations.

But is the target demographic another factor. Are there just not enough people who appreciate and are able to pay for Rue Cler? If I understood the postmortem analysis correctly, one factor in the fall of Cave Taureau was the young hipster audience not having enough money to buy enough of the wines.
 
originally posted by Rahsaan:
originally posted by VLM:

Most people already viewed Rue Cler as an expensive, special occasion restaurant which is crazy. Dinner for 2 was probably less than Outback.
Click to expand...

Interesting comparison.

Presumably one difference is that Outback operates with higher margins/lower quality products, so they make more profit. They are also a large chain and can spread profits/losses across locations.

But is the target demographic another factor. Are there just not enough people who appreciate and are able to pay for Rue Cler? If I understood the postmortem analysis correctly, one factor in the fall of Cave Taureau was the young hipster audience not having enough money to buy enough of the wines.
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Cave Taureau was also too early. Downtown Durham has added thousands of residential units since we closed. The parking situation was an impediment to our customers which might not have been as big of a problem if there were a lot more residents.

The young folks that were there then were mostly the early folks: artists, restaurant workers, etc. This was before all the app/web design firms and $2M condos, etc. So who knows? We didn't have enough customers and those we had didn't spend enough to make it seem viable to Noel, so we bailed before we lost money.

Edited to add: our building had also been sold and our new lease would have doubled the monthly rent.
 
Yes, I was going to say that the recent influx of money seems like it would help the Rue Clers (and Cave Taureaus) of the world. But I have no idea how these things break down in actual numbers. And we know there are masses prepared to eat, drink and pay for things that none of us would want to consume!
 
At $39 prix fixe, Rue Cler would certainly be considered a moderately priced restaurant in DC and would have had no problem attracting a wine geek crowd. I don't know how that price compares in Research Triangle. And I doubt that the usual Outback crowd, who order steak and a beer, come out paying the same amount. But I never ate at Outback, so I couldn't say.
 
originally posted by VLM:
Here is the thing that I think most folks don't realize, opening back up to 50% business isn't possible. For lots of places even 80% business means failure. Some of this is just the late stage capitalism rush to the bottom, prices haven't kept up with rising costs so margins are super slim. Some of it is structural and that'll need fixing too.

If we are able to open back up, we'll need permanent help from our landlord with the lease and we'll need to raise prices on our food menu... Maybe we just lean into that and become a truly high end restaurant. This is not at all what the restaurant was supposed to be and has been throughout the last 14 years but restaurants like ours might be a relic of a bygone era.
Click to expand...

This was also one of the main points of that recent article in NYT mag, by the owner of Prune.

originally posted by Rahsaan:
Presumably one difference is that Outback operates with higher margins/lower quality products, so they make more profit. They are also a large chain and can spread profits/losses across locations.
Click to expand...

It's not just trading down to lower quality products. I think many people also underestimate the extent to which low, competitive prices are maintained in the U.S. by beating the crap out of suppliers; not breakthroughs in productivity, technology or "synergies." It's a major impetus for getting bigger or merging.

Another chain/franchise trick used to be keep expanding, so that weak performance on a per-store, same store basis get muddied in the financial statements.
 
originally posted by Christian Miller (CMM):
originally posted by VLM:
Here is the thing that I think most folks don't realize, opening back up to 50% business isn't possible. For lots of places even 80% business means failure. Some of this is just the late stage capitalism rush to the bottom, prices haven't kept up with rising costs so margins are super slim. Some of it is structural and that'll need fixing too.

If we are able to open back up, we'll need permanent help from our landlord with the lease and we'll need to raise prices on our food menu... Maybe we just lean into that and become a truly high end restaurant. This is not at all what the restaurant was supposed to be and has been throughout the last 14 years but restaurants like ours might be a relic of a bygone era.
Click to expand...

This was also one of the main points of that recent article in NYT mag, by the owner of Prune.
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Yeah, I think that anyone who is able to think about these things clearly ends up there.

originally posted by Christian Miller (CMM):
originally posted by Rahsaan:
Presumably one difference is that Outback operates with higher margins/lower quality products, so they make more profit. They are also a large chain and can spread profits/losses across locations.
Click to expand...

It's not just trading down to lower quality products. I think many people also underestimate the extent to which low, competitive prices are maintained in the U.S. by beating the crap out of suppliers; not breakthroughs in productivity, technology or "synergies." It's a major impetus for getting bigger or merging.

Another chain/franchise trick used to be keep expanding, so that weak performance on a per-store, same store basis get muddied in the financial statements.
Click to expand...

This is all late stage capitalism race-to-the-bottom shit. It's a tempting line of thought that in our capitalist system this is all inevitable. What not enough people fully appreciate is how fragile this system is. A less centralized more distributed and local food supply would be much more resilient, I think.

I keep coming back to something Eric said about how we need to change to become an economy that is based on humanism and less on financial power. That really resonates with me, but it certainly isn't American style capitalism.
 
originally posted by VLM:
I keep coming back to something Eric said about how we need to change to become an economy that is based on humanism and less on financial power. That really resonates with me, but it certainly isn't American style capitalism.
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I did not conduct my graduate work in the Anglo-American analytic philosophic tradition, which is the focus for probably 95% of the departments in the country. I studied what at the time was considered "continental" philosophy. Which has strong roots in humanism, a school of thought which could not be more out of vogue if it tried.

Over the dinner table with the wife and kids I usually drift back in that direction. I try to get my college age son to ask questions like "What is an economy FOR?" That is, does it have a purpose (said in a slightly anthropomorphic way)? My answer is along the lines of "to serve the best interests of the citizenry writ large." If economic growth does not ameliorate hunger, sickness, and want for the bulk of society then how much growth it generates is fairly irrelevant to me. Meaningless numbers to hide behind.

It's sad to say that Jameson is the prophet of the day. But kind of hard to ignore. Even as a "humanist" I am not a globalist and do believe that more local dependence and governance would be a good thing.

P.S. The Outback in New Jersey my family went to a few months ago for my aunt's birthday was very expensive for what we got (she and my mom loved it though). I pretty much avoid restaurants due to pricing, reserved for "date nights." My brain is stuck in early 1990s pricing as reality, hah.
 
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I keep coming back to something Eric said about how we need to change to become an economy that is based on humanism and less on financial power. That really resonates with me, but it certainly isn't American style capitalism.
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so what are you thinking? scandanavia?
 
Nathan,

Sorry for your continued plight.

What led you to conclude:

"Most people already viewed Rue Cler as an expensive, special occasion restaurant which is crazy."

I followed your menu, from time to time, and would have thought it a weekly option, if I were in the metro area.
 
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