This was the note I posted elsewhere a few years ago:
In most grownup scientific circles (as distinguished from radio talk shows and Fox TV), the evidence for an increase in global mean temperature over the last 100 years is regarded as persuasive. But for most of us, global mean temperatures dont mean a whole hell of a lot, pardon the expression. Warmer temperatures overall will still leave some places colder; some wetter and some dryer. Unless we live in low-lying coastal areas, in which case polar ice cap melting and sea level increases mean a hell of a lot, we are probably more interested in local effects than global ones. Do we need more or less insulation in our houses? Can we plant an orange tree? Or, importantly, will our favorite wines turn out in ways we like or dont?
Leaving aside the global question, it was with interest that I turned to an issue of Science that had gotten lost in my office and had found its way into my briefcase for a recent transcon flight. An article (Vol. 303, pages 1499-1503) by some neutral Swiss (J. Luterbacher and colleagues) describes the history of the European climate from 1500-2003, and draws some remarkable conclusions. I wont venture too far into methodology, but they have compiled many sources, including instrumental records, tree rings, glacier ice, icebergs in northern oceans, and so on to approximate a historical European climate model that is reasonably high resolution0.5X0.5, with as much monthly detail as possible.
Id like to mention a few particular extremes that were interesting. The winter of 1708/1709 was damn cold throughout most of continental Europe (though warm in Iceland). Average temperatures from Paris to Moscow were 8C or more below the 1500-2000 average during January 1709. Brrrrrr.
But what about us, and now? The summer of 2003 was hot in Europe, as we well know. Interestingly to me, it was *really* hot in central and southwestern France. The highest deviations from normal were in these areas (Im trying to figure out how to get the charts to show). Deviations from averages were 4.5-6C (8-10F) from near the Atlantic coast to Burgundy, down to the Med. It was hot elsewhere, but not to quite this extreme. August really cooked in a smaller area in the western half of this block: Anjou and Touraine, and the regions south of them, were extravagantly hot in August, ca 7 C hotter than long averages. The winegrowing areas of France were the warmest places in a warm continent last summer.
Or, to put the vintage into another context, I quote from the paper:
Taking into account the uncertainties in our reconstructions, it appears that the summer of 2003 was very likely warmer than any other summer back to 1500.
the summer of 2003 exceeded 1901 to 1995 European summer temperatures by around 2C (4 SD)(!)
The 20th century was the warmest since 1500... The nine warmest European years on record have occurred since 1989. The year 1989 (+1.3C) and the decade 1994 to 2003 (+0.84C) were very likely the warmest for more than half a millennium.
There is a strong trend in the data towards warmer summers, with clear vintage implications. Using various models, the authors predict:
about every second summer will be as hot or even hotter than 2003 by the end of the 21st century (2071 to 2100).
Wild stuff, no? Is it time to plant Grenache in Chinon so the vines have enough age when its time to make Chateauneuf there? Very possibly. Perhaps Syrah could be a transitional bridge. Might vignerons need to irrigate if persistent high pressure systems prevent storms from reaching the vineyards?
Should we buy even more 2002 (Muscadet, Sancerre, Burgundy, demi-sec Vouvray), if 2003 is the new model? Probably not, actuallythere should be plenty of vintage variation and frequent cooler years to come.
Should the trade worry more about transport and storage in Europe? You betcha. Should the famous London auction house whose non-air conditioned storage I recently visited spring for some A/C? You know it.
So whatever the story might be around the world, weather in central France is warmer than ever, and seems poised to stay that way.