TN: Autumn and nebbiolo

MarkS

Mark Svereika
Something about a fine walk in an Ithacan gorge on a splendid fall day that puts me in the mood for nebbiolo. Perhaps it's the dried leaves, the crisp dry air that smells of roasted earth with a bracing feeling of being alive. Whatever, I came back from that walk in the mood for Piedmont and opened Giuseppe Mascarello's 2003 Monprivato. Surely not the most powerful nebbiolo out there, this hit my sweet spot with a cherry skin washed fragrance, a very light fading color in the glass that is a solid, elegant wine, etheral in feel and weight with candied rose petals and cherry fruit leather flavors. Very drinkable now. A-/B+
 
I am finding that '03 Barolos are hitting pretty well now, despite their youth. They're a little more fruit-forward, due to the heat and so it's making them more available than a more restrained, classical (thinking '96 or '01) vintage might have been at an analogous point in their development.
 
Does anyone think that the 2003s are going have long cellaring potential? I have some 2003 Vietti Rocches that I don't plan to touch for a while. Are they approachable now?
 
I think Cinderella Wine or one of those close-out places offered this '03 Monprivato for a good price (~$50) some months ago. Have not opened a bottle yet, so I appreciate the note, Mark.

I don't know why it is that I won't touch 2003 wines from almost anywhere in Europe, with the exception of Piedmont. I've had a few '03 Barolo that were surprisingly good and far more balanced than, say, many wines that I've tasted from '03 Bordeaux or '03 Rhone.
 
The temperature deviation was highest in central France. It was several degrees lower, though still high, when you got farther away.

I can't find the Nature or Science paper from a few years ago, but let me look.
 
originally posted by Yule Kim:
Does anyone think that the 2003s are going have long cellaring potential? I have some 2003 Vietti Rocches that I don't plan to touch for a while. Are they approachable now?

I wouldn't pin my hopes on waiting too long.
 
This was the note I posted elsewhere a few years ago:

In most grownup scientific circles (as distinguished from radio talk shows and Fox TV), the evidence for an increase in global mean temperature over the last 100 years is regarded as persuasive. But for most of us, global mean temperatures dont mean a whole hell of a lot, pardon the expression. Warmer temperatures overall will still leave some places colder; some wetter and some dryer. Unless we live in low-lying coastal areas, in which case polar ice cap melting and sea level increases mean a hell of a lot, we are probably more interested in local effects than global ones. Do we need more or less insulation in our houses? Can we plant an orange tree? Or, importantly, will our favorite wines turn out in ways we like or dont?

Leaving aside the global question, it was with interest that I turned to an issue of Science that had gotten lost in my office and had found its way into my briefcase for a recent transcon flight. An article (Vol. 303, pages 1499-1503) by some neutral Swiss (J. Luterbacher and colleagues) describes the history of the European climate from 1500-2003, and draws some remarkable conclusions. I wont venture too far into methodology, but they have compiled many sources, including instrumental records, tree rings, glacier ice, icebergs in northern oceans, and so on to approximate a historical European climate model that is reasonably high resolution0.5X0.5, with as much monthly detail as possible.

Id like to mention a few particular extremes that were interesting. The winter of 1708/1709 was damn cold throughout most of continental Europe (though warm in Iceland). Average temperatures from Paris to Moscow were 8C or more below the 1500-2000 average during January 1709. Brrrrrr.

But what about us, and now? The summer of 2003 was hot in Europe, as we well know. Interestingly to me, it was *really* hot in central and southwestern France. The highest deviations from normal were in these areas (Im trying to figure out how to get the charts to show). Deviations from averages were 4.5-6C (8-10F) from near the Atlantic coast to Burgundy, down to the Med. It was hot elsewhere, but not to quite this extreme. August really cooked in a smaller area in the western half of this block: Anjou and Touraine, and the regions south of them, were extravagantly hot in August, ca 7 C hotter than long averages. The winegrowing areas of France were the warmest places in a warm continent last summer.

Or, to put the vintage into another context, I quote from the paper:

Taking into account the uncertainties in our reconstructions, it appears that the summer of 2003 was very likely warmer than any other summer back to 1500.

the summer of 2003 exceeded 1901 to 1995 European summer temperatures by around 2C (4 SD)(!)

The 20th century was the warmest since 1500... The nine warmest European years on record have occurred since 1989. The year 1989 (+1.3C) and the decade 1994 to 2003 (+0.84C) were very likely the warmest for more than half a millennium.

There is a strong trend in the data towards warmer summers, with clear vintage implications. Using various models, the authors predict:

about every second summer will be as hot or even hotter than 2003 by the end of the 21st century (2071 to 2100).


Wild stuff, no? Is it time to plant Grenache in Chinon so the vines have enough age when its time to make Chateauneuf there? Very possibly. Perhaps Syrah could be a transitional bridge. Might vignerons need to irrigate if persistent high pressure systems prevent storms from reaching the vineyards?

Should we buy even more 2002 (Muscadet, Sancerre, Burgundy, demi-sec Vouvray), if 2003 is the new model? Probably not, actuallythere should be plenty of vintage variation and frequent cooler years to come.

Should the trade worry more about transport and storage in Europe? You betcha. Should the famous London auction house whose non-air conditioned storage I recently visited spring for some A/C? You know it.

So whatever the story might be around the world, weather in central France is warmer than ever, and seems poised to stay that way.
 
Here is a expanded section of a figure from the paper:
hot_and_cold.jpg
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
Deviations from averages were 4.5-6C (8-10F) from near the Atlantic coast to Burgundy, down to the Med.

I find this hard to believe, unless we're talking about the entire summer, including the cooler periods. The extended 35C+ weeks in Paris and other septentrional zones in France were a good ten degrees over the norm.

I say this as someone who would idle in Picard frozen foods stores during those endless, endless weeks.
 
So the figure shows August as the worst outlier. 2003 was clearly the hottest summer since at least 1500. The scale of the map is moderately coarse, and it is possible that urban heat islands like yours may have had larger deviations, I don't know.

I think these are also averages throughout the day.
 
The odd thing is that the temperatures didn't go down in the night. Maybe down to 29C at about 3am or 4am. It was fairly brutal. Air pollution also soared. I'd go out at about 10am for some "air" before the onslaught, and feel choked in it.

I was in Paris for the horrors of August, but interestingly enough had been in the Berry (central France, about an hour south of Orlans, or winely speaking, near Quincy) for most of July, when there was also a spike. Given the rural setting and stone house, it stayed relatively cool inside, but again, all the fields crisped up and it was unwalkable during the day.
 
originally posted by Sharon Bowman:
The odd thing is that the temperatures didn't go down in the night. Maybe down to 29C at about 3am or 4am. It was fairly brutal. Air pollution also soared. I'd go out at about 10am for some "air" before the onslaught, and feel choked in it.

I was in Paris for the horrors of August, but interestingly enough had been in the Berry (central France, about an hour south of Orlans, or winely speaking, near Quincy) for most of July, when there was also a spike. Given the rural setting and stone house, it stayed relatively cool inside, but again, all the fields crisped up and it was unwalkable during the day.
Note charts above, July wasn't as bad.
 
"The summer of 2003 exceeded 1901 to 1995 European summer temperatures by around 2C (4 SDs). Taking into account the uncertainties in our reconstructions, it appears that the summer of 2003 was very likely warmer than any other summer back to 1500."
 
originally posted by SFJoe:
Note charts above, July wasn't as bad.

I'm a woman, I'm not supposed to know how to read maps.

(Why do I feel like I'm channeling VLM?)

It wasn't very prolonged in July, to my recollection, and could have included late June, now that this information has been pointed out to me. (Ha ha, eyewitnesses are always the exemplar of reliability....)
 
Yes, thanks for the note. I picked these up from Cindarella wine. Around $39 with free shipping actually. Quite a deal on Montprivato, hot vintage or not.
 
This is like an all-time record long post for you, Joe. Would you mind forwarding a copy of the paper to Virginia's Attorney General, Cuccinelli?
 
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